It’s official - Metro Atlanta is past the bottom - We’re seeing the beginning of the end.

OK, I’m not saying that we have arrived where we want to be, the continuing road to recover will still take a while. However, the numbers for November home sales in Metro Atlanta are in and, as expected, closings shot up significantly for Atlanta and in Forsyth County we are leading the pack.

It’s clear that the first-time homebuyer tax credit did what it was supposed to do. Those that were in a position to take advantage of it did. Now that the tax credit has been extended and expanded to move-up buyers I suspect that the activity we’ll see in the first quarter of 2010 will be much higher than usual.

Here are the numbers for both Single Family and Condos/Townhomes:

What I see is a precipitous drop from Nov 07 to Nov 08 that is almost as large as the significant rise in homes sold from Nov 08 to Nov 09. In Forsyth County, single family homes shot up 63% from Nov 08 and Townhomes (which were essential non-existent) more than doubled. We’ve seen new construction starts and will continue to see more through 2010 due to the overwhelming supply of developed lots in foreclosure.

While it’s still a buyers market, the months supply of inventory for Metro Atlanta has dropped below 10 months and we’ll continue to see that decline as inventory levels continue to move lower because more and more buyers realize that while there are still deals out there; the best deals are now probably behind us.

The number of homes sold increased for all of Metro Atlanta in October but the significant jump in homes sold in Forsyth County show strong signs that a recovery is on the way and Forsyth County Real Estate will lead that recovery for our area.

Metro Atlanta Data

The October 2009 data is in for metro Atlanta and home sales shot up nearly 15% over October 2008. Condos and Townhomes were up more than 24% over Oct 08 which is the highest year-over-year increase since early 2006. The average sales price for single family was $201,038 or 6.9% less than October 2008. However, the average sales price for November 2008 was $193,702. If we exceed that number for November 2009 (and I think we will) then that will be the first year-over-year increase in average sales price in almost 2 years.

Forsyth County Data

The number of single family homes sold in Forsyth County increased as well but with a far greater leap - 39% increase over October 2008. Take a look at the chart below:

As you can see, the average sales price is down slightly from last year and the average days on market has improved slightly.

Moving Forward

We will continue to see the numbers move in the right direction, with increased signs of new construction in spots throughout the county. The expanded and extended tax credit will aid in this and help continue to reduce inventory levels throughout next year.

Why you should put your home on the market NOW! (and no, I’m not crazy)

As you probably have heard, the first-time home buyer tax credit has been extended through April 30th 2010 and expanded to home buyers who have owned their own home for 5 of the past 8 years - they are eligible for a $6500 tax credit. The government expanded it because it has worked, but we need to continue reducing the number of homes for sale in Cumming, in Forsyth County, everywhere.

So, what does this have to do with listing your home?

When the first-time home buyer tax credit was set to expire at the end of this month that incented a large number of buyers to move forward and purchase a home. In October, for Forsyth County, there were 161 homes sold. Already for November there are 287 homes under contract in Forsyth County. These buyers were qualified to purchase a  home all year long, and there have been plenty of “deals” out there for them to take advantage of. It was the tax credit that pushed them off the fence to move forward with a purchase.

With this extension AND expansion to move-up buyers, activity will remain consistent through the next 5 months, which is typically a very slow period. I’m recommending to all my clients considering listing next year to get on the market as soon as possible so they can take advantage of that buyer activity. It doesn’t change the fact that your home has to be priced appropriately, but the buyer activity over the winter will be higher than it typically is for this time of year.

If you are thinking of selling and want to know what the market value of your home is, contact us for a free no-hassle evaluation and detailed marketing proposal.

New Construction Defying The Market?

There is still concern and doubt about our housing recover here in Metro Atlanta but are home builders defying the market in Cumming or do they know something that many home buyers still seem to ignore? Certainly a great number of first-time home buyers have deemed the tax credit enough incentive to purchase a home and if that credit is extended & expanded many more will do the same. But a large number of buyers are still waiting on the sidelines looking for that elusive “great deal” that may not appear.

Through August of this year over 500 building permits have been issued in Forsyth County, compared to 210 in Gwinnett and 111 in Hall County. Builders are snatching developed lots out of foreclosure at substantial discounts and putting up a number of spec homes. But here is the kicker….they’re selling them at a pretty good clip too! As of right now in Forsyth County there are 376 new homes available for sale, another 81 under contract and 551 sold over the past 12 months. That is an absorbtion rate of just over 7 months with is really very good.

National builders like Pulte are building in the mid to high $200’s at The Estates at Old Atlanta. Local builders like The Knight Group are finishing out Union Station where all their current inventory under contract, I think there are only 4 more lots available. Traton Homes has purchased lots in Fieldstone Preserve and is now building in the $300’s where the homes previously sold in the $700’s.

What this shows is a demand for new homes that rival the buyer demand for foreclosure deals. I guarantee we will see more of this next year, for three main reasons. Banks are anxious to get these lots off there books and many buyers don’t want to deal with repairs & the difficult process and red tape that short sales and foreclosures come with. And finally, Forsyth County and North Atlanta in general still have great demand from both local and relocation buyers.

North Atlanta provides great schools, easy access commutes and plenty of options for dining and entertainment.

 Why can’t I find a $250,000 home for about $150,000?

I’ve had more than a few people ask me this question lately. There are still a lot of home buyers looking for great deals but the all seem surprised when they aren’t finding many foreclosures out there. Sure if you just search for any foreclosure in North Atlanta then a lot of homes will come up, but most people are looking for deals in specific communities or school districts and they are finding the choices somewhat limited.

Here’s an example looking at 3 large communities in Forsyth County:

The chart above clearly indicates that foreclosure listings are moving fairly quickly. The banks aren’t having a hard time moving these properties. As of this post there are 158 active Foreclosure / Bank Owned properties listed. There are 76 bank owned properties currently under contract or sold so far this month. That sounds like a 60 day supply of inventory.

How can this be?

I know, everyone keeps hearing on the news or reading that the foreclosure crisis is far from over. Here in Georgia we are a non-judicial foreclosure state which basically means the lender doesn’t have to sue you to take the home back. So, after being 90 days behind they can advertise your home in the paper for 4 weeks and then sell it on the courthouse steps. I’m hearing about people who are behind by 8 or 10 months, some even a year and the process hasn’t started. Before the crisis this was unheard of in Georgia.

Banks are too swamped with current inventories nationally and with people trying to get loan modifications. The foreclosures that do go on the market get priced very aggressively (generally) and often sell for over the asking price. The banks are dragging their feet on new foreclosures because having the owner in the home and taking care of it is better for them. If the bank eventually forecloses they may be able to sell it for more when the market improves.

Smart buyers make realistic decisions.

So, what does that mean for the buyer looking for a deal? It’s fine to look for a great deal but remember, you’re going to be living in the home too. Have your Realtor explain the market, this isn’t Detroit or Las Vegas. Don’t get distracted looking to pay $150,000 for a home woth $250,000 - you won’t find it. Instead, make sure your realtor looks at current comps and compares those to the market last year and gives you a realistic idea of where the market is heading now. If you can buy at 20% - 40% off recent market values you ARE getting a good deal.

Lily Anderson is a typical 8 year old girl. She loves cute little animals, playing with her friends and new clothes – what little girl doesn’t! She lives in Vickery with her parents, Joey and Jennifer Anderson and her little sister Audrey who is 2. Her Mom is a realtor in the community and her husband built most of the kitchens of the homes in Vickery.

 A few weeks ago, just before Labor Day, Lily was diagnosed with Neuroblastoma Cancer and it happens to be in Stage 4. In short she has a large tumor in her abdomen and the cancer has spread to many other parts of her body. But the family remains positive and optimistic and the entire community is rallying to help. Hearing about and seeing the community come together and help this family means everything and make Vickery the special place that it is.

 Because lime-green is Lily’s favorite color, there were green ribbons and lilies provided by Jill Chatham, owner of the Flower Post, and volunteers put them on mailboxes for Lily to see when she comes home from the hospital. There is also a run being organized to raise money for her treatment and many of the local shops are donating as well.

 On October 11^ththere will be a run in Vickery, “Lily’s Run” which will start at 1pm. There will be food, prizes, games and activities for the kids, but most importantly it will be an opportunity to turn out with the community to help and raise money for a beautiful little girl.

If you can’t make it, please consider donating to the cause to help Lily and her family fight the good fight and battle this disease. Your donations and your prayers are truly appreciated. You can click on the heart below to read more about this young family and make a donation.

As reported recently by The Nielsen Company, Forsyth County Ga has made the top 10 list of counties where the young and affluent choose to buy homes and live. Of the top 50 counties in the U.S. where the young and wealthy choose to buy homes, 16 counties are in and around Washington DC. However, what is really interesting is that Forsyth County is the only county in the Southeast to make the top 10 (In your face Buckhead!).

The report bases it’s findings on home buyers aged 25-34 with an income of $100,000 / year or greater. Here is the chart: 

What does that mean? Well, maybe nothing right now but if the trend continues we all know that money is followed by growth, improvement in schools, tax revenue, more entertainment and shopping. None of this is new to Forsyth County. In fact, more than 20 national and international companies have located their corporate headquarters in Cumming, GA. The County has all but approved a 240-acre development of mixed use residential, commercial and retail that will bring jobs, more tax revenue and….more development.

Home buyers in Forsyth County have a number of great communities to choose from, ranging from Custom Estate homes in Creekstone Estates, exclusive gated communities like St. Marlo and Laurel Springs to the unique craftman style homes in Vickery.

Here are a few more stats about the demographic in this study:

• Young and wealthy households make up only 2.15 percent of the total U.S. population.
• Only 15.9 percent of households are headed by persons aged 25-34, and only 13.48 percent of those in that age group make over $100K.
• The median household income of that age group is $49,750.

We’ve all been reading about the up’s and down’s of Lake Lanier and hearing too much about the tri-state water wars but the recent holidays and nice weather have brought many boaters, anglers and weekender’s out to enjoy the great weather and still good water levels.

However, the one thing that still hasn’t re-emerged in earnest is the lake home buyer. No doubt there are plenty of people who dream of having that lake cabin or cottage with a nice view of the water and easy walk to the dock. But the market, financing or just fear of future lake levels has kept them jumping in.

Lake Lanier Stats:  Looking at the current stats for lake homes in Forsyth County, there are 150 lake homes with their own private docks on the market right now (as of 9/9/09) with 8 properties under contract and a mere 24 sold year-to-date. For those sold the average sales price is $550,000 but it’s artificially high due to 4 sales in the $1M to $2M range. Otherwise it would be closer to $400,000.

Is this an opportunity for lake buyers? Well, the simple answer is yes because inventory is high and buyers are scarce. However, lake sellers are not typically distressed sellers. In fact, out of the 150 active listings, only 3 are foreclosures / short sales - only 2%. But, if sellers have them on the market, there are deals to be made - it just requires getting in the game.

Recently the AJC reported that Forsyth County high school seniors helped put their county on the top of the list for the college entrance exam, ACT. The ACT is a curriculum based test, as opposed to the SAT which is an aptitude test.

Out of a possible 36, the national average was 21.1, the average for Georgia was 20.6 but Forsyth County came in at 23.1. That, coupled with the national recognition of South Forsyth High School being in list of the top 500in the country - it’s clear that choosing to live in Forsyth County and choosing Forsyth County Schools is a smart choice.

Contact us to find homes for sale in the High School district of your choice, or search for yourself.