It’s official - Metro Atlanta is past the bottom - We’re seeing the beginning of the end.

OK, I’m not saying that we have arrived where we want to be, the continuing road to recover will still take a while. However, the numbers for November home sales in Metro Atlanta are in and, as expected, closings shot up significantly for Atlanta and in Forsyth County we are leading the pack.

It’s clear that the first-time homebuyer tax credit did what it was supposed to do. Those that were in a position to take advantage of it did. Now that the tax credit has been extended and expanded to move-up buyers I suspect that the activity we’ll see in the first quarter of 2010 will be much higher than usual.

Here are the numbers for both Single Family and Condos/Townhomes:

What I see is a precipitous drop from Nov 07 to Nov 08 that is almost as large as the significant rise in homes sold from Nov 08 to Nov 09. In Forsyth County, single family homes shot up 63% from Nov 08 and Townhomes (which were essential non-existent) more than doubled. We’ve seen new construction starts and will continue to see more through 2010 due to the overwhelming supply of developed lots in foreclosure.

While it’s still a buyers market, the months supply of inventory for Metro Atlanta has dropped below 10 months and we’ll continue to see that decline as inventory levels continue to move lower because more and more buyers realize that while there are still deals out there; the best deals are now probably behind us.