In Like a Lion, Out Like a Lamb.

I know that phrase usually applies to the weather in March, but we might experience something similar with real estate home sales. It’s what typically happens at this time of year. Home buyers and home sellers start getting the itch, want to move up or downsize, change schools, etc. Activity in Forsyth County has increased at a pretty good rate and unit sales of single family homes are up. All of which is great news, but a breakdown in the figures may expose a little trouble in the coming 60 days.

The good news:

If you look at the following chart you will see that the quarterly number of homes being sold has been increasing year-over-year.

We don’t have the final numbers in for Q1 of 2010, but I’m projecting that to be up approximately 45% over Q1 of 2009. We have a solid trend starting with Q2 of 2009 and it indicates a solidly recovering market. Sales of single family homes in Forsyth County has increased 42% from February to March of this year. March 2010 is up over March 2009 by 34%. Clearly this is all good news. But…. there is always a But.

But if we look at what price ranges made up the March sales numbers, nearly 50% fall under $250,000, which indicates a heavy impact by first time home buyers. I don’t think all of those are actually first-time buyers but clearly it’s weighted in that direction. Also, it’s not a surprise to see more sales in the lower price ranges, that is exactly what the tax credit was intended to accomplish.

My question is this; will we see numbers drop off after April 30th, which is the deadline for tax credit contracts, or will spring and the typical seasonal market continue the trend. If the later is the case, it will support a broader housing market recovery that we are feeling right now.